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From: <DanReind@ao*.co*>
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 13:51:20 EDT
To: wwm@sa*.ne*, z4d2@ug*.cs*.ub*.ca*
Cc: rebreather@nw*.co*, cavers@ca*.co*, techdiver@aquanaut.com,
     kirvine@sa*.ne*, armantrout@wo*.at*.ne*, halcyon@ha*.ne*,
     rose@CS*.Sc*.ED*
Subject: Re: "Whiz Kid" wins Lockwood Award - was Re: OC bailout
Cute.  Hey, nothing wrong with being a child prodigy (err not exactly).

The only problem is you got my point wrong. 

 I did in fact state that oxygen spiking was more dangerous at the end of a
long dive than at the beginning.  Particularly if you've survived up to that
point (i.e. all the risk is behind you on the shallow part of the dive are
behind you).  I certainly don't recommend doing it.  But here's what I was
getting it.  If you line 100 monkeys up and have half of them do a dive with a
spike at the beginning and half at the end, the models seem to predict that
more monkeys will come back doing the spike at the end.  This is very similar
to the idea that you have a 1 in 36 chance of rolling a six, but having rolled
a six your odds of another six are now only 1 in six.

I would be very suprised if anybody actually changed their diving habits based
on what I've found.  But I'll put it out for whoever wants to read it.  I
think most people will agree I put enough caveats in.

But if anybody out there finds an error in my analysis of the data or
interperetation please drop me a line.

Regards,

Daniel Reinders
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