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> I'll argue that our ability to predict DCS on a given > standard profile is a lot better than throwing a dice. Well, I'd go so far as to say that the dice are loaded and are heavily biased over random. The question is, what is the error rate? Considering the consequences, my feeling is that the error rate, especially for "extreme exposure" dives, is uncomfortably large. > In a way your own record is proof that you now have a > very good idea of what constitues a safe dive for you > is it not ? In one of my earlier posts on this thread, I said something along the lines of "unless you were part of a large-scale study on DCS, or have done a LOT of diving and have paid close attention to trends..." (words to that effect). I feel I fall in the latter category. Through trial and error, paying very close attention to how I feel post-dive, I have a rough feeling of what tends to work for me and what doesn't. For example, I know that I am better-off doing two 200' dives separated by a 2-hour surface interval than I am doing a 200' dive followed by a 100' dive with a 2-hour surface interval (keeping "decompression conservatism" relatively constant). However, this is not something I would recommmend to others. I trust my experience first, followed by what bubble models tell me, followed by what my neo-Haldanian-based computer tells me. The "algorithm" I use is a "fuzzy-logic" compilation of a bunch of different input variables. It seems to have surved me well over the past 9 years, 356 days (my 10th-anniversary of becoming a "born-again diver" comes up in 9 days). > You really think your profiles would prove > risky for any other diver ? Maybe, maybe not. I've gotten away with a lot of hairy stuff over the years. It took an enormous violation of common sense to nail me the first time. I seem to be less likely to get bent than ststistics would suggest. On the other hand, I am a decompression weenie, so I try to do very conservative profiles, so maybe most people would be alright following the same schedules. Also, maybe I could cut down on the deco time without drastically increasing the chances of getting hit. But, I know at least two people who get bent at the drop of a hat. They probably have PFO's or something -- I would not recommend that they do the same profiles I do. > As for the elementary processes behind the formation of > bubbles being chaotic - I hope not :-). The basic process can be mapped out mathematically according to physics, as long as certain variables are known. The chaotic part is the biological part - the part that determinbes the values of those certain variables. Another chaotic aspect is how and to what extent bubbles translate into DCI symptoms. > They say that eating pickles is bad for you. > Apparently a study done in 1849 shows 100% mortality rate. Exactly! ;-) Aloha, Rich
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