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Date: Mon, 25 Mar 1996 04:53:10 -0800
From: iantdhq@ix*.ne*.co* (IANTD )
Subject: Re: One More diver dead
To: Anthony DeBoer <adb@he*.re*.or*>
Cc: techdiver@terra.net
Anthony
Random events do happen at odd times, however over the years we have 
noticed, especially in cave diveing that accidents tend to occur in 
sequences of three.

Do not know why but if you check the past you will see this correlation
Tom mount
You wrote: 
>
>Anthony Montgomery <amontgom@ha*.ed*> wrote:
>> ... Now, I'm not sure, but I don't remember about hearing of this 
>>many separate deaths so close together locally.  ...
>
>By their very nature, random events don't occur at regular intervals.  
A
>few years ago, we had three unrelated diver deaths the same summer in
>Kingston, Ontario, despite having none at all in the area most years.  
A
>lot of people really got their britches in a knot, the inquests got a 
lot
>of publicity, and the media followed its usual standards.  One wreck 
got
>a "killer" reputation because two of the fatalities happened there,
>despite being no different from a safety viewpoint than the dozen 
nearest
>other wrecks.
>
>It's certainly necessary to examine the facts and determine that the
>accidents were in fact unrelated (if for example all of the victims 
had
>gotten their tanks filled the same day from the same compressor, I'd 
want
>to see an air test), but that's something that has to be done by quiet
>investigation and not by the media.
>
>This sort of thing happens in other fields too.  A particular aircraft
>type will get a "killer" reputation because of a statistical knot and 
a
>sudden group of accidents (witness recent US Navy experience with the
>F-14).  Let's hope recent events in Hawaii aren't repeated and that 
the
>people who assume that all statistical anomalies must be significant 
go
>back to their horoscopes.
>
>-- 
>Anthony DeBoer                                  
http://www.onramp.ca/~adb/
>adb@he*.re*.or* (here)
>adb@ge*.co* (work)                             #include 
"std.disclaimer"
>--
>Send mail for the `techdiver' mailing list to `techdiver@terra.net'.
>Send subscription/archive requests to `techdiver-request@terra.net'.
>

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